A Not So Gentle Reminder to Republicans About Their Opposition to Obama from...
I was against the Iraq war for two reasons. First, the Bush administration’s argument that oil revenue would pay for the war effort seemed far-fetched. While I didn’t perform even the most rudimentary...
View ArticleTake my Mom's Advice: Screw 'em.
This is a picture of my Mom, who died about 11 years ago. In the early 1980s, she escorted women into Planned Parenthood. For her efforts, the ever tolerant and loving religious right labeled her...
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What the Hell is Happening in the Markets?
[UPDATE]: Neil Irwin of the NY Times has written a wonderful piece on this topic. I highly recommend it —here’s the link.It’s been a scary few weeks in the markets specifically and the economy...
View ArticleFor the Sake of the Economy, We Need a Budget Deal ASAP
Before I dive into the heart of the matter, I’d like to make very clear that I am NOT providing an opinion on the politics of this situation; I leave that to other, far more capable political...
View ArticleThat Word "Collusion?" I Don't Think It Means What You Think It Means
The movie the Princess Bride was released when I was in college. While a good friend loved the movie because of its fencing scenes, I was more enamored with its tongue-in-cheek tone. To that end, my...
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The California Economy is Not Losing to Texas; Both States Are Doing Well
I was recently told that because of Texas' low-tax economy (my home state), the state was growing at strong rates while high taxes and complex regulations were forcing California to bleed jobs and...
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Just How Much Better is the Trump Economy? Marginally.
During the Obama years, Republicans spilled a fair amount of digital ink telling us that the Obama economy was terrible: job growth was weak, the labor force participation rate was declining, and wages...
View ArticleFor the Survival of the Species, We Need to Take the Gloves Off Now
Since the Gingrich years, Republicans haven’t been good faith political actors. Instead, they have increasingly accepted a nationalist "us versus them" mentality to rile up their voters. See, for...
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Sh%$holes? Take A Look At the Ruby Red South
Unless you’ve been living under a rock for the last few weeks, you’ve heard/read about/seen President Trump’s Twiter-tirade against “the squad” and Elijah Cummins. As New York Times writer Charles...
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It's Time to Start Worrying About the Economy
Over the last 12-18 months, there's been a continual grinding lower in the global economic data, primarily centered in the manufacturing sector. At first, it was only anecdotal in nature, with various...
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What the Heck is Happening in the Markets?
If you’ve been watching the news today, you’ve no doubt seen the nearly hourly commentary about the stock markets selling off, largely as a result of an inverted yield curve. There are also some other...
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We're Seeing Economic Weakness Throughout the Business Sector
Consider the following data points, beginning with industrial production:Total industrial production started to decrease in 4Q18 and has continued to weaken since (left chart). The Y/Y percentage...
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Has Trump Broken the World Economy? It's Starting to Look Like It
There was a period during the Great Recession when the negative news came fast — as in, every day there was a major economic shock that, in and of itself, scared the bejeebus out of market watchers....
View ArticleI Think We're Starting the 2nd Dark Ages
It’s that time of the year when we’re supposed to write screeds to what is good and wonderful, to give thanks for cherished things, and to hold hands and sing happy tunes.But I’m not thankful. In...
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It's Time For the Younger Generation and Women To Lead
Year-end always makes me reflective. Unfortunately, my reflections this year are depressing. Let’s start with the big issue — climate change. Yes, it’s already happening, and not for the better....
View ArticleThere Must Be A Reckoning
Several days ago, a colleague sent me a tweet-storm summation originally written by Seth Abramson. Its contents continue to haunt me. Abramson succinctly explains that Trump directly and the GOP...
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The 2017 Tax Cuts Didn't Perform as Advertised (Shocking, I Know)
Today at the gym, I was watching a video of Paul Krugman discuss his latest book on combating zombie lies, one of which is that tax cuts pay for themselves. This, combined with another post I saw...
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Old(er) Guy Apologizing to Younger Folks About the Sorry World They're...
I don’t have kids; I’m just not a “kid” kind of guy. So I’m a bit out of touch when it comes to the problems that young people are facing. Rather than have my kids explain their problems to me, I...
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Corona Virus, Yield Curves, and Recessions
Normally, the yield curve is a remarkably accurate recession predictor. Don’t believe me? Take a look at this chart:The yield curve as contracted before each of the last three recession. The...
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The Markets Have Issued a No-Confidence Vote In the President
One way to think about the markets is that they represent a real-time barometer of traders’ and investors’ opinions about the economy. Think of it like peering into part of the collective national...
View ArticleIf a Dem Wins the Presidency, The Republicans Will Be Complete Schmucks (Again)
I’ve had an amazing sense of deja vu (all over again) over the last few weeks as the coronavirus situation has unfolded. I keep thinking back to the beginnings of the GFC. Then, there was a trickle...
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The Invisible Hand Votes Against Trump
Please read David Frum’s excellent analysis of what was wrong with Trump’s Oval Office address. He hits all the main points as to why it was so lacking.In the “A picture is worst a thousand words”...
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Are We Already in a Recession?
The last few weeks have been very scary. For people like me who watch the economy and the markets on a daily basis, the drops have been deeply concerning and unsettling. At times like this, it’s...
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How Should We Understand the Incoming Economic Data?
One of the things I love about economics is the way to describes reality in numerical terms. This allows me to get an idea of what’s happening and whether or not something is better or worse than a...
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Accept That Everything You Understand About the World Will Fundamentally Change
I’ve spent a great deal of time trying to develop a way to understand exactly what is happening. At times I’m remarkably calm about things; at other times, I think we’re in the opening scene of a...
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Some VERY Good Financial News: The Credit Markets Are Better
I hope this helps to ease some of the stress caused by today’s very bad employment news.There’s a corner of the US financial system that gets little to no attention. I’m talking about the credit...
View ArticleReasons To Be Hopeful
It was only a few months ago that I was writing economic and market commentary at Seeking Alpha that said things are fine. The overall backdrop has changed drastically since then due to the global...
View ArticleSomeone Who Knows Business Explains Just How Mind-Numbingly Stupid the Trump...
So, we know that Trump doesn’t want to implement a national plan to buy anything related to the pandemic. Let me explain just how mind-numbingly stupid this is.Let’s assume that product X costs...
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The Labor Market Has Collapsed
About three months ago, I was writing about the economy using words like, “modest” and “moderate” to describe economic growth. These adjectives came from the Federal Reserve, who, in typical central...
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The Economic Damage Is Brutal
We now have a fair amount of coincidental data to show how severe the economic damage has been. The charts are stunning.Let’s start with two sub-indexes of the unemployment rate:The unemployment rate...
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Just How Devasted is the Labor Market? Very.
Several Federal Reserve Banks provide some additional insight into the breadth of the labor market damage.Let’s start with the Richmond Fed’s non-employment indicator:Here’s a quick explanation of how...
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The Jobs Market Is a Disaster Zone
Yesterday, the BLS reported:Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These...
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The Economy is Experiencing "An Epic Collapse in Demand"
In today’s New York Times, Neil Irwin argues that the economy is experiencing an “epic collapse in demand.”What, exactly, does that mean?Let’s start with this diagram from study.com:Let’s begin at the...
View ArticleBands That Should be in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame
I’m writing this post as a distraction from all of the heavy sh*^ going on in the world right now. If you agree/disagree or want to make an argument for another band or artist that should be in the...
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There's Good and Bad News On the Economy
Let’s start with the positive data, beginning with the leading indicators:1-unit Building permits ticked higher in the latest report. In addition, low mortgage rates are supporting buying activity and...
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Houston, Texas Could Soon Rival Brazil's Outbreak
At least, that’s according to a doctor and Baylor College (emphasis added):If Harris County continues on the same new case trajectory as it is on at present, Houston could become the worst affected...
View ArticleWhere is Dan "Old People Should Die for the Economy" Patrick?
This is just a quick note from down in Texas.Recently, Dan Patrick, the Lieutenant Governor, went on the Tucker Carlson show and said old people should be willing to die for the economy. Here’s the...
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Houston? We Have a Problem. A Really Big Problem
In case you’re wondering why Governor Abbott — who was opposed not only to a state-wide mask mandate but also to letting localities issue mask mandates — issued a statewide mask order, take a look at...
View ArticleRepublicans Want Americans to Die
I’ve really struggled to understand the news cycle since the Pandemic started. Could the president be so stupid as to ignore the warnings of, well, everyone? Could Republican voters be so obstinate...
View ArticleOnce Again, It's the Ballot Or The Bullet.
Several weeks ago, my wife said she was “weary,” which I thought was the perfect adjective to describe my mood. “Tired” means I’ve lost an hour of sleep and need to go to bed an hour early to...
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Dr. Fauci's Revenge In Graphic Form [UPDATED]
The above was put together by my friend Invictus. Please follow him on Twitter as he updates the lies and obfuscations to come. Please share this graphic far and wide.This is just a remarkable chart...
View ArticleHow to Talk About Government Debt the "Right Way"
Every time Democrats bring up federal spending, Republicans counter with, “We can’t repay all this debt we already have!” Or, when Dems bring up investing in infrastructure or the Green New Deal,...
View ArticleWhy Vote if Manchin Keeps Siding With the Racists?
This is just a short vent. But I just got the news alert the Manchin has said he would not vote for the For the People Act. Could someone please tell me why we should have a Democratic majority if one...
View ArticleHouston Should Secede From Texas
Harris county – which is the home of Houston, Texas – faced a daunting task during the 2020 presidential election. Since voting is a close-quarter activity, it also created the perfect...
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Houston Must Secede From Texas, The Economic Argument
I previously noted that recent actions by the Republican-dominated state legislature were clearly designed to thwart Harris County’s efforts to increase voter participation, essentially relegating...
View ArticleHouston Must Secede From Texas: A Respectful Response to Rebuttals and Concerns
I wanted to thank those that commented on my previous post regarding Houston seceding from Texas. They were very thought-provoking. I wanted to respectfully answer what seem to be the main...
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The Blue City Statehood Initiative (Formerly Houston Must Secede From Texas)
This idea was planted about 4-5 months ago in reaction to Texas Republicans’ voter suppression bill. A friend and I were talking and he said something to the effect of, “Why is Houston even in...
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Inflation is Now a Problem
It’s been awhile since I’ve been around here. I hope everyone is doing as well as can be expected in a world that continues to trend down the rabbit hole at a remarkable pace.For most of this recovery,...
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Overall, the Economy is in Good Shape at Year End
Today, I’ll be using the long-leading, leading, and coincidental economic indicator formulation in writing about the current economic environment. This is based on research done by Arthur Burns and...
View ArticleDear Democrats: I'm Done
I’ll be 55 years old in January. For my entire life, I’ve voted a straight Democratic ticket. And I’ve mostly been proud to do so. But in the last 15-20 years, the level of political incompetence is...
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